香港人口出生率跌至0.8%，為全球最低。一份最新公布的網(wǎng)上調(diào)查顯示，在18至40歲沒有子女的受訪者中，逾六成沒有生育計劃。香港人口老化問題難見紓緩，這將對香港可持續(xù)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響，關(guān)乎教育、安老、住房、勞工政策等方方面面。為今之計，特區(qū)政府既要繼續(xù)創(chuàng)造生育友善的環(huán)境，放寬移民政策，更要從大灣區(qū)建設(shè)、推動資源最佳配置的宏觀角度，進(jìn)一步完善本港的人口政策。

　　在香港的深層次矛盾和問題中，人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化是其中之一。相比30年前，香港社會年齡中位數(shù)由31歲增至43歲；男女初婚年齡顯著推遲；每千名適齡女性的生育數(shù)字由1200多人減至現(xiàn)在的700多人。為鼓勵生育，歷屆特區(qū)政府推出不少措施，包括增加子女免稅額、增加讬兒服務(wù)、增加侍產(chǎn)假等，可惜實際效果欠佳。上述調(diào)查揭示了不愿生育的原因，76.9%受訪者歸咎于居住空間不足，63.9%指為人父母責(zé)任沉重。問及如何提升生育意愿，過半數(shù)認(rèn)為應(yīng)改善教育環(huán)境，或為生育、育兒提供經(jīng)濟(jì)支持。

　　要有效提升生育意愿，需對癥下藥。特區(qū)政府加大了拓土建屋的力度，隨著北部都會區(qū)和東大嶼填海計劃的推進(jìn)，“地從何來”有了明確方向。當(dāng)然，拓土建屋不能一蹴而就，居住空間短期內(nèi)難有實質(zhì)性的改善。在增加讬兒服務(wù)方面，受到空間和勞動力不足的局限。另外，基于納稅人減少及稅基狹窄，決定了香港在支持生育方面存在著資源的天花板。在可見的未來，香港將維持低出生率，整個社會越來越變得“老化”，各行各業(yè)“人手荒”加劇，這是我們必須面對的現(xiàn)實。

　　生育率低和人口老化是世界性問題，也是發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的普遍現(xiàn)象，各地鼓勵生育政策的效果都不見得好。在這種情況下，引入外勞、吸引人才，是最快見效的手段。香港在收入水平、社會環(huán)境、文化教育等方面具有一定的優(yōu)勢，只要在入境政策方面作出一些調(diào)整，增加靈活性，找到合適的人手補(bǔ)充并不難，難處在于如何平衡各方的利益，如何化解勞工組織對基層“打破飯碗”的憂慮。尤其是，香港房價、租金長期高企不下，引入外援，難免會帶來房價、租金及通脹上升的壓力。新加坡近來不斷提高置業(yè)印花稅，比香港的“辣招”還要辣多倍，折射了外來資金和人口大量流入導(dǎo)致的副作用，其經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn)值得借鑒。

　　但香港畢竟不是新加坡。新加坡作為一個小國，任何問題都必須獨(dú)自面對。香港作為一個直轄于中央政府的特區(qū)，有中央大力支持，更有廣闊的發(fā)展腹地，這為解決問題提供了更大的底氣。特區(qū)政府推出高端人才政策，很快就有一萬多人申請，八成來自內(nèi)地；香港缺少醫(yī)護(hù)人手，廣東方面雪中送炭，這些就很能說明問題。在解決就業(yè)、創(chuàng)業(yè)、安老、醫(yī)療、住房等方面，大灣區(qū)可提供大量的機(jī)遇，展現(xiàn)了無限的潛能。香港累積多年的老大難問題，有了解決的希望。

　　特區(qū)政府上一份人口政策報告發(fā)表于2015年，8年過去，香港的環(huán)境已發(fā)生重大變化。在“愛國者治港”的新時代，行政主導(dǎo)原則得到落實，行政立法良性互動積極配合，更有大灣區(qū)這個重大平臺，香港應(yīng)打開思路，拓寬格局，制定更宏觀的人口政策藍(lán)圖。

Hong Kong needs a more macroscopic population policy blueprint

Hong Kong's birth rate drops to 0.8 per cent, the lowest in the world. A latest online survey shows that over 60 per cent of childless respondents aged between 18 and 40 have no plans to give birth. As a result, the problem of population ageing in Hong Kong can hardly be eased. This has a far-reaching impact on Hong Kong's sustainable development, concerning various aspects such as education, elderly care services, housing and labour policy. In view of the current predicament, the SAR Government should continue to foster a childbearing friendly environment and ease immigration policy and, moreover, further enhance Hong Kong's population policy from a macroscopic perspective of the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (Greater Bay Area) and striving for the best allocation of resources.

Of the deep-rooted structural imbalances and problems in Hong Kong, one is the change in the demographic structure. Compared with three decades ago, the median age of the population in Hong Kong society rises from 31 to 43; the median ages at first marriage for bridegrooms and brides noticeably increase; the total fertility rate decreases from 1,281 live births per 1,000 women of childbearing age to more than 700 at present. In order to encourage childbearing, previous terms of the SAR Government had launched quite a few measures including increasing Child Allowance in taxation, expanding child care services and extending paternity leave, which regrettably remain not so effective. The above-mentioned survey reveals the reasons why married couples decline to have children: 76.9 per cent of the respondents blame on insufficient living space and 63.9 per cent say the responsibilities for a parent are too heavy a burden. When asked how to boost their willingness to give birth to children, more than half say the education environment should be improved or economic supports should be provided for childbearing and childrearing.

A problem-oriented approach must be taken in order to boost fertility desire. The SAR Government is strengthening the effort to find more land to build more homes. With the Northern Metropolis East Lantau Metropolis plans being carried through, "where to find land" now has a clear direction. Needless to say, finding more land to build more homes cannot be done at a stroke, hence substantial improvement of living space can hardly be expected in the short run. As for the increase of childcare services, it is restricted by space and shortage of labour. Moreover, the decrease in the number of tax payers and our narrow tax base set an upper limit of resources for Hong Kong to support childbearing. So in the foreseeable future low birth rate will remain in Hong Kong, and whole society will become "ageing" day by day, and shortage of manpower in various sectors will intensify. This is the reality we have to face.

Low fertility rate and population ageing is a worldwide problem and also a common phenomenon among developed economies. Policies adopted in various places to encourage childbearing all appear not so effective. Under such circumstances, importation of labour and attraction of talents are the fastest and most effective means. Hong Kong has certain advantages in income level, social environment, culture and education. So it is not so difficult for Hong Kong to find suitable manpower supplement after making some adjustment in our immigration policy to increase its flexibility. The difficulty lies in how to balance the interests of all parties involved, and how to ease the worries of labour organisations about "breaking the rice bowls" of grass-roots workers. In particular, as housing price and rental in Hong Kong remain high for a long time, importation of labour inevitably will exert upward pressures on housing price and rental as well as inflation. Singapore recently has kept increasing stamp duty rates for home purchases, which now are much harsher than Hong Kong's "harsh measures", indirectly showing the side effect caused by the influx of foreign capital and personnel in large quantity. Its experience and lesson are worth drawing on.

But Hong Kong is not Singapore after all. As a small country, Singapore has to face any and all problems by itself alone. Hong Kong, as an SAR directly under the Central Government, enjoys the strong support of the Central Government and has a vast hinterland to back up its development, which give Hong Kong greater confidence to face and solve problems. Shortly after the launch of the Top Talent Pass Scheme (TTPS), the SAR Government has received more than 10,000 applications, of which 80 percent came from the Mainland. As Hong Kong suffers a shortage of healthcare manpower, Guangdong sends help in the SAR's hour of need. These are telling examples. For Hong Kong society to deal with issues such as providing jobs, starting businesses, elderly care services, healthcare and housing, the Greater Bay Area could provide enormous opportunities and show unlimited potentials. Now there are hopes for Hong Kong to resolve its long-standing tough problems accumulated over the years.

The SAR Government's last report of population policy was delivered in 2015. Eight years have passed since then and Hong Kong's environment has undergone sharp changes. In the new era of "patriots governing Hong Kong", the executive-led principle is implemented and the executive authorities and the legislature interact benignly and cooperate proactively. And adding to this, there is such an important platform as the Greater Bay Area. Hong Kong should open its mind and broaden its horizon to work out a more macroscopic population policy blueprint.